A few days before Uber’s IPO, someone in the Amsterdam office had the idea to (unofficially) circulate a sheet for employees to bet on the stock’s closing price on the first trading day. The person with the closest guess would win a small reward.

The underwriters set the opening price at $45 per share.

When I opened the sheet, I noticed that everyone had bet at or above $45, with most bets ranging from $47 to $55.

I too believed the price would see a small bump.

However, one woman, had bet lower, I think around $43. I recall thinking that this was a classic game theory strategy. With dozens of people betting higher, the likelihood of being correct in that range was slim. Betting against the crowd, even if the chance of a price drop seemed only at 10%, offered a better chance of winning.

And as it turned out, the stock closed at $41.57.

That woman won the bet. I never found out if her move was deliberate or if she was simply more pessimistic than the rest of us.